commoditybroking asked:

Wheat up off heavy rainfall in Europe… US,China manufacturing higher than forecast…all eyes on US Jobs data… outlook of gold…

AEIVideos asked:

On July 30, 2010, Nick Schulz sat down with John H. Makin, AEI visiting scholar, to discuss deflation.

spydat3k asked:

two points in this video: 1) notice that she says: “its not like those buildings are going to fall” 2) the market is at the exact same spot it was in 2001, on September 11th money.cnn.com Financial markets never opened on Sept. 11, 2001, and remained closed for the next four trading sessions. When stocks began trading again on Sept. 17, the results were predictably gloomy. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 684.71 points, its biggest one-day point loss in history. As the AP, Forbes and others reported, Fridays market closed within a tenth of a point of the closing figure on September 10, 2001: The Dow Jones industrial average is down 22 at 9605.41. That is nearly identical to the Dows finish of 9605.51 eight years ago, the day before the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. www.forbes.com www.myfoxaustin.com agonist.org A case of financial espionage raises questions about Wall Streets proprietary trading practices and exactly what role they play in the market. The perpetrator of the espionage, Sergei Aleynikov, is a former computer programmer and equity specialist at Goldman Sachs. He is alleged to have downloaded secret software at Goldman that is used to direct large volume, rapid-fire trades to exchanges and commodity markets, often just before the close of regular trading. Stocks slip after 5-day advance Stocks slipped Friday, as falling oil prices dragged on the influential commodities sector. CNN’s Stephanie Elam reports.

With the increased volatility we experienced over the last 3 years (oil went from $10/bbl to 137 then back to 70, copper went to $4000/t before peaking at $8000/t) there is a natural increase in demand for risk management products and most importantly training on all the intricacies of hedging these risks.What is more, many companies with exposure to commodities are quite (if not very familiar) with these exposures as they are either a) pure commodities players or; b) have had these for a long time.

What is lacking (and hence the purpose of this course) is some training on how to hedge these risks in the derivative over-the-counter (OTC) markets. What do I mean? With the advent of futures (and the marketing push led by the major exchanges) there is a fair amount of material out there on how to hedge commodity risk with futures, and most exchanges even run basic courses on how to hedge with futures (aka their products). For example, the London Metals Exchange runs (fairly expensive) courses on risk management for metals. There isn’t though (not that I have seen anyway) any good, comprehensive course on how to hedge these risks in the OTC market that goes beyond the basic stuff “this is a forward, this is a swap, this is an option, etc.”.

Seven years into my career helping corporates hedge their commodity price risk OTC (which funnily enough is where most of the volume is traded, NOT futures) I am getting an increasing number of questions from clients on how these function and if I (or anyone else) can provide some training on them. Many financial institutions will sell and structure you the product, but very few will teach you how they work beyond the very basics that you need to purchase their product. Those who are not in the sector (i.e. not banks and major commodity trading houses) that have a similar level of sophistication, have had to spend many years learning this stuff “here and there.” There isn’t a course that can teach you all this in one go as there would be for interest rates or FX for examples.

So this is what motivates this course. A programme that in a few hours can give you a hands-on view of derivatives risk management in the commodities world. There will be some theory, but just the bare minimum required to understand the drivers of the product. Most of it will be a hand-on practitioners’ view of how to hedge price risk in the real world.

Let me introduce myself. After a degree in business administration and finance I traded exotic commodity derivatives for a major investment bank in London. I then moved onto to pursue a masters in mathematics and finance before going back to the banking world this time in a more sales and structuring client-facing role helping corporates (mostly in Europe and Asia) manage their commodity price risk. As the risk management and derivatives world becomes more and more complex (despite the reduced risk appetite due to the fall-out of CDOs) I firmly believe that the more quantitative ones’ background the better placed one will be to manage financial risks. At the moment I lead the commodities risk management effort for Southern Europe on behalf of a major European investment bank.

What topics will I be covering? The field is vast and time is precious. I suggest starting with the following:

Oil markets Base metal markets Counterparty risk implications

I am sure more topics will come up down the line but these are the ones where I am getting the most demand at the moment. Hope this helps. Happy reading!

By: Agustin Valecillos

About the Author:

AgWebSara asked:

Bill Biedermann with Allendale Inc. says the probe into Goldman Sachs will impact commodity markets.

AgWebSara asked:

A stronger dollar and weaker Euro, lower oil prices, and good growing conditions in the Midwest should add up to push grain markets lower…but it’s not. Mark Gold offers his take on the action in Chicago.

к☆™ asked:


Hi, i am technical analyst.. i have developed certain indicators that has 80% accuracy.. i want to start trading on higher level and for that i need a proper approach towards investors in various fields so that they can bank on my talent and allow me to trade for them. So since you are Boss how would you react it? I am looking forward to fix up some meetings and do you really think i can crack-up.. Do you think such talent needs to be given a chance. the indicators i have developed they require huge investments and great money management plan that i already have. So can you pls put your views on it and give me some tip for the scratch. thanks.

In 1983, two great commodity traders and friends were having an argument. One was of the opinion that great traders are made. The other said,” No, they are made.” Both had a bet. They placed an ad in the famous Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and the Barrons for novices to apply for apprenticeship as commodity futures traders. Lo ahd behold many hundreds applied. Only 13 novices who had never traded anything before were selected and taught by these two great men how to trade commodities. Thus the great Turtle Trading Experiment in the history of trading was born. These novices were called as Turtle Traders by the two great traders. Ultimately almost all succeeded and became millionaires themselves. Learning commodity trading is not difficulty. This is the best time to do it. Commodity markets have entered a historical bull market that will continue for many decades in first half of the 21st century.

Commodities like gold, silver,oil, copper,uranium, wheat, cotton and other are experiencing an all time high historical prices. Gold prices recently breached the unheard of historical barrier of $1200 per troy ounce. Gold prices have retraced somewhat, but the market is poised for another rally in gold prices in the next few months. Other commodities are also experiencing a all time high demand. Crude oil is expected to reach close to $200 per barrel in the next few years with the global economy finally out of recession. What we are watching is a secular bull market in the commodities. This secular bull market may continue for many decades in 21st century. That is why it is being said that 21st century belongs to commodity trading. The fundamentals behind this secular bull market are strong.

But this does not mean that the commodity bull market will go up in a straight line. There will be times when the commodities market will no perform very well. This is simply the nature of the commodity cycle. No market ever goes up in a straight line.

What are the fundamentals that are driving the bull market in commodities? These are the factors like the rapid global population growth that started in the last half of 20th century and is expected to continue in 21st century. This rapid population growth is taking place mostly in the developing continents like Asia and Africa. Recent studies done by UNDP, an agency of United Nations indicate that the time for the global population to increase by 1 billion people has decreased from 50 years in the early 20th century to something like 13 years in 21st century.

Now this rapid increase in the global population is going to put a lot of pressure on natural resources. It is natural for people to eat and built homes where they can live and sleep. These homes need heating in winters.All these things need natural resources.

Couple this population growth factor with the largest urbanization movement that the world is experiencing. In early part of 20th century only 15 of the world population lived in cities. Now this figure has jumped to more than 50%. More and more people are moving to cities around the world in search of jobs and better living conditions. Urbanization means a high demand for natural resources as city dwellers consume a lot more natural resources as compared to village dwellers. This phenomenon is more pronounced in Asian countries.

Then there is rapid industrialization that is taking place in countries like Brazil, Russia, China and India which is putting a lot of pressure on the global supply of natural resources. As energy resources get depleted, more and more competition will develop between these countries to develop direct access to global energy markets.

By: Ahmad A Hassam

About the Author:

Traders who trade for a living are generally swing traders or day traders. If you are planning to day trade in commodities, then you need to get hold of a reliable trading system that gives good results consistently. Despite having such a system, there are a few things you may want to know about day trading in the commodity markets.

Day Trading Defined

Those who trade and complete all their trades within the period of a day’s trading session are known as day traders. Day traders have to square off all their trades by the end of the 24-hour period. That is their time limit. If they hold their positions for any longer, they can then be called position traders, and not day traders. They are the most common form of traders to be found in commodity markets.

Day traders like to churn their capital on a day to day basis to maximize its return. They prefer not to lock in capital for extended periods of time. More often than not, they have very limited capital to leverage, and cannot afford to block it all. Speed is the name of the game where day trading in commodity futures is concerned.

Facts About Day Trading

It has been observed that you stand a better chance of earning money in day trading commodity markets if you are prepared to invest a bigger amount of money. This is because more money gives you the option to diversify your investment and manage the risks better.

An important component of commodity futures trading, is using charts that allow you to decide what you want to do. Secondly, those who follow trends taste success.

As in all things, there are limitations that day traders face. The most important one is that they trade in a single day’s session. Hence, they cannot let their profits run any longer even if they want to – they are limited by time. They prefer by choice to take the money and run. Time is money, and time is limited. Another issue that crops up at some time or another for day traders is their stops. They cannot have too large a stop for fear of losing a lot of money. Therefore, they have to keep narrow stops, and thus increase their chances of being whipsawed out of a trade early. Ask any old hand about being whipsawed, and they will tell you that it is a part of the game. Daily ranges also limit targets, as the luxury of hanging on is not available. Quick profits are targeted, and many a time commodity day traders have to get out of a trade at the end of the day having made very little or no money from it.

However, day traders are not to be under estimated in any way. They truly form the volume numbers of the commodity market. Many intraday movements are because of day traders. They cause sudden spurts in commodity prices with heavy buying or selling. An integral part of the market, they form the backbone of the commodity market.

By: David Rivera

About the Author:

sjohari asked:

Japanese candlestick charting is used commonrly in trading in stock markets, forex markets and commodity markets. By analysis of candlestick charts it is often to predict points where new price trends are about to start. Trending prices are what you need to earn profits, provided you are able to predict the start and end of the trend with reasonable certainty. Candlestick charts help the traders in identifying those turing points as they occur, before a new price trend starts. This video and all future videos in this series are posted in this blog : www.sanjay-j.com Please make it a point to visit this blog frequently for updates. You can also subscribe RSS feed so that you will know when the blog is updated. www.sanjay-j.com Your comments are always welcome. Best wishes Sanjay Johari